Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season
Welcome Here's 2011! I believe we could get an El Nino this year, so I'm thinking an above-average season. Anyone have specific calls? Just like I did with the Atlantic hurricane season, the /Betting pools/ are here, too! Ryan1000 21:18, January 18, 2011 (UTC) :I guess I'll go with 17-9-4 (named-hurricanes-major) Yqt1001 02:18, February 2, 2011 (UTC) ::I think we will have 14-19 storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 4-6 majors, and I'm not sure about cat. 5's; we've had one here for two straight years; that's a record as it is, and saying we'll have another one for 3 straight years is a bit too generous for the EPac IMO. Ryan1000 21:49, February 2, 2011 (UTC) ::15-6-3 is my guess. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] ::And it is officially hurricane season! yay! YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 00:07, May 15, 2011 (UTC) :It has been cyclone season in the SHem Forum beforehand, but anyways, happy hurricane season! Adrian will be on our hands likely in the next week or two. Then, we'll get many more storms from there. Unlike 2010, an El Nino could happen this year, so an active season could be on our way! Ryan1000 12:54, May 15, 2011 (UTC) October 92C.INVEST 92C.INVEST CP, 92, 2011100100, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1541W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, A compact area of low pressure located about 575 miles south- southeast of the Big Island is moving west at 10 to 15 mph. Thunderstorm coverage and organization has been limited, and upper level winds are only marginally conducive for further development. There is a low chance, near 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.Allanjeffs 01:25, October 1, 2011 (UTC) : But it's in a spot that's only marginally conductive for development.10Q. 01:58, October 1, 2011 (UTC) :: Still at 10%[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 14:32, October 1, 2011 (UTC) ::: Gone.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 15:40, October 2, 2011 (UTC) 11E.IRWIN Aoi: Near Mexico 10%.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 15:40, October 2, 2011 (UTC) 20%.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 12:08, October 3, 2011 (UTC) Down to 10%Allanjeffs 17:46, October 3, 2011 (UTC) Back up to 20%. EPac has gotten a little boring rescently, but October has the potential to produce some of the mightiest EPac storms possible. 2 of our 4 retirees in this basin have formed in this month, and a ton of very strong storms can easily form at this time too. This is the WPac's peak month, so I would expect a ton of activity over there. 'Ryan1000' 20:53, October 4, 2011 (UTC) I agree with you in the eastern pacific part because the MJO is coming through it and also in the Atlantic so both basins will have a lot of tropical mischief but the western pacific is coming dryer conditions as the MJO leave that basinAllanjeffs 21:15, October 4, 2011 (UTC) 97E.INVEST Invested now and up to 30%. I am convinced we will have a hurricane out of this one, if only briefly, but it does appear like it will intensify due to some pretty favorable conditions for the next several days, and we have a new AOI at 20% for the next couple of days. Allan, although the MJO may be leaving the WPac, their October is like the Atlantic's September, or EPac's August; it's their peak month. Considering the extent of activity WPac has dealt out in the past, I think we will have an active October coming our way there, and here. 'Ryan1000' 08:21, October 5, 2011 (UTC) : 50%.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 11:52, October 5, 2011 (UTC ::Looks like it has a decent chance at MH strength..I kinda hope it gets to C5 strength, one thing Hilary didn't have that this wave does...is the MJO. Yqt1001 12:16, October 5, 2011 (UTC) :::70%! Yqt1001 19:11, October 5, 2011 (UTC) ::::Only forecast to be a 1, but I wouldn't be surprised if it and 98E explode in the next few days. 'Ryan1000' 19:40, October 5, 2011 (UTC) ::::I think it might reach about Category 2 status and become Irwin. Kiewii 20:04, October 5, 2011 (UTC) :::::80%. Yqt1001 00:00, October 6, 2011 (UTC) ::::::100 percent now but still not a TD. I am interested in how the NHC will explain the cyclogenesis of this an 98E after the season. -- 07:54, October 6, 2011 (UTC) :::::: Tropical Depression 11-E * TD 11 is here. -- 10:44, October 6, 2011 (UTC) Yipee! 'Hurricane Andrew (444)' 11:36, October 6, 2011 (UTC) It is forecast to become a hurricane and make landfall in Mexico :/ 'Hurricane Kiewii' 12:39, October 6, 2011 (UTC) this one no 10E yesAllanjeffs 12:48, October 6, 2011 (UTC) These 2 storms are confusing! 'Hurricane Kiewii' 17:20, October 6, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Irwin EP, 11, 2011100612, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1166W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 40, 1009, 180, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IRWIN, M, now irwinAllanjeffs 12:57, October 6, 2011 (UTC) :Official now. Not expecting much out of this.YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 14:58, October 6, 2011 (UTC) From the latest NHC discussion on Irwin: '''WELL...SO MUCH FOR THE SLOW STRENGTHENING THAT WAS FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.' LOL'd at that. 50 kts, 997 mbar per the latest NHC advisory, with the forecast upped to 80 kts! If that holds (or better yet, Irwin pulls a Eugene), it looks like we'll have our first Hurricane Irwin this year (all five previous incarnations failed to reach hurricane strength). --HurricaneMaker99 20:41, October 6, 2011 (UTC) I think Irwin will be the first of these two to become a hurricane; i'm surprised as to how it isn't one now. I can already see an eye forming. Ryan1000 22:19, October 6, 2011 (UTC) :: :::65mph at the advisory just now...sounds like Irwin is likely to be upgraded to a hurricane at the next advisory..what they said in the advisory for Irwin sounds like they are describing a hurricane. NHC says a 100mph peak from Irwin also. Yqt1001 03:13, October 7, 2011 (UTC) Hurricane Irwin : Irwin is a cane with advisory 5. Jova still a tropical storm. -- 09:21, October 7, 2011 (UTC) ::I can just about see an eye on this hurricane! (Not that rare) Hurricane Kiewii 09:32, October 7, 2011 (UTC) ::10-8-4! Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:25, October 7, 2011 (UTC) :::There goes the forecast from NOAA.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 12:19, October 7, 2011 (UTC) :::At 90 mph. Our fifth Category 2 of the season is coming. 'Hurricane Andrew (444)' 20:50, October 7, 2011 (UTC) ::::I don't know, Jova is much bigger than Irwin is, and it appears it could be weakened or even absorbed by her because she's more than twice Irwin's size. However, NHC still takes it recurving back to Mexico as a hurricane Next week, so it bears watching. 'Ryan1000' 13:25, October 8, 2011 (UTC) ::::Irwin is down to 75 mph and could very well weaken to a tropical storm Allanjeffs 14:34, October 8, 2011 (UTC) :::::Irwin looks nothing close to a hurricane now, looks like a post - tropical cyclone.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 19:30, October 8, 2011 (UTC) ::::::It's getting sheared by Jova really hard, and the last advisory is not far away.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 19:33, October 8, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Irwin (2nd time) Now a tropical storm and he may get absorb by Jova EP, 11, 2011100818, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1210W, 60, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 30, 30, 1009, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IRWIN, D,Allanjeffs 20:19, October 8, 2011 (UTC) :It's very likely to be absorbed.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 20:27, October 8, 2011 (UTC) ::NHC shows it getting back to hurricane strength as Jova pulls away. Yqt1001 21:12, October 8, 2011 (UTC) ::Irwin continues to weaken EP, 11, 2011100900, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1206W, 50, 997, TS Allanjeffs 01:12, October 9, 2011 (UTC) :::45mph now. Irwin is falling apart..NHC still shows strengthening later though. Irwin is more of a failure than Philippe. Yqt1001 14:12, October 9, 2011 (UTC) ::::Philippe wasn't a failure at all IMO. He should have degenerated into an open wave just a few days into his life, but held on and on and finally became a hurricane after ''12 days! Now, Irwin isn't as entertaining as Philippe was, but that could easily change. And hey, at least it's the first incarnation of Irwin to reach hurricane strength (like Bud and Ernesto in 2006). --HurricaneMaker99 14:20, October 9, 2011 (UTC) :::Yeah I worded that wrong. It was supposed to be a way of bugging Ryan about how he called Philippe a failure and then Philippe epic winned in that shear. Anyways, Irwin is coming back now that Jova heads eastward. Yqt1001 14:33, October 9, 2011 (UTC) 50mph winds now. Yqt1001 20:58, October 9, 2011 (UTC) I was expecting Philippe to die out much earlier, but he defied what should have happened to him just like Ophelia. However, despite how long he lasted, he fortunately didn't affect land. Irwin is like the EPac's form of Philippe this year(except he did become a hurricane shortly after he formed), but instead of dying from the shear, Irwin's hanging on through it, and he could all the way to Mexico. Jova will likely be the most severe threat of all of the three storms, but all of Irwin, Jova, and possibly future Kenneth, will cause many problems for Central America and/or Mexico. Ryan1000 01:44, October 10, 2011 (UTC) 10E.JOVA AOI:Near Mexico Another one at 20%. Ryan1000 08:21, October 5, 2011 (UTC) 98E.INVEST 50% already, just a question..are 98E and 97E close enough to have a Fujiwara interaction? They seem really close... Yqt1001 19:11, October 5, 2011 (UTC) I don't think they will, but I am quite surprised as to how unenthusiastic the models are with this one. It's moving slower than 97E, and it has better conditions since 97E will be in the clear as well. Bud and Carlotta of 2006 were so close to each other that I thought they would undergo a Fujawara at any given moment, but all that did happen was Bud encountered unfavorable conditions, tearing him apart, and what was left of Bud killed Carlotta as she was heading seaward. This thing will not become sheared by 97E because the difference in intensity(percentage for development) isn't far enough off for that. 50% vs 70%. Bud was 125 mph vs Carlotta at only 85 mph, and Bud became a hurricane when Carlotta was becoming a depression/minimal TS. If Bud didn't shear Carlotta into oblivion, then there is no way this storm will become torn apart by 97E. Ivan and Joan in WPac of October 1997 are also somewhat of a mystery for no fujawara between them, as were Ron and Susan in SPac in January 1998. We'll just have to wait and see, but I guess it's fair to say Irwin and Jova are just about here. Ryan1000 19:40, October 5, 2011 (UTC) :::80%! The NHC actually has this wave developing before 987E now. Yqt1001 00:01, October 6, 2011 (UTC) ::: you mean 97l yeah sorry Yqt1001 it was me is that i was not log in it looks that 98l winAllanjeffs 03:59, October 6, 2011 (UTC) ::: they both do it at the same time... I'm still confused as to why the NHC is unenthusiastic... SHIPS only forecasts a 50 knot peak with this one, but although only 2 of the models forecast a MH out of 98E(HWRF and ICON), with 97E, none of the models take it past 85 or so knots and NHC thinks it will become a huah this will be irwin i think 00:53, October 6, 2011 (UTC) ::: The race to Irwin begins...loser gets the name Jova. Hurricane Andrew (444) 01:46, October 6, 2011 (UTC) :::: I wonder what happens rricane, while this one not. A little confusing... Ryan1000 02:16, October 6, 2011 (UTC) :::Yes I did 190.11.238.4, thanks. And yes it is rather confusing Ryan, but I guess it could be because they only use models as a reference and use their experience to make intensity forecasts instead. Though, the last time they used their experience to make intensity forecasts Philippe didn't degenerate and the models were right for keeping him at ~60mph through that killer shear. We'll see what happens. Yqt1001 03:08, October 6, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression 10-E 98E wins! Expected to peak at 65mph. Yqt1001 03:38, October 6, 2011 (UTC) sorry Yqt1001 it was me is that i was not log in at that time it looks that 98l win Allanjeffs 04:00, October 6, 2011 (UTC) Well, it won the race to become a depression but the other system got named firstly :D -- 17:40, October 6, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Jova 10-E is now named! Hurricane Kiewii 20:38, October 6, 2011 (UTC) :Expected to be a category 2 hurricane at landfall in Mexico. Yqt1001 20:49, October 6, 2011 (UTC) ::Wow! The first landfalling hurricane of the season... am I right? Hurricane Kiewii 20:52, October 6, 2011 (UTC) :::Nope. Beatriz made landfall in Mexico before it exploded into a remnant low.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 22:09, October 6, 2011 (UTC) ::::Beatriz only brushed Mexico, she never made landfall. Tropical Depression 8 was the only TC that made landfall there this year. Last hurricane to make landfall on Mexico was Jimena in 2009 as a category 2 hurricane. Yqt1001 22:11, October 6, 2011 (UTC) :::::Uh, from the EPac, yes, but Yqt, Alex and Karl battered them pretty good from the ATL side in 2010. If the conditions come together at the right time, we could have these two storms exploding into major hurricanes, which would make 6 for 6 in EPac. The ACE this year has been incredible for a season with only so many storms. We could easily pass 100 by the time these two storms are done. Jova is currently forecast to become a 2 by the time it approaches Mexico, and Irwin a 1. However, given the lack of signifigant wind shear, the potential for these two storms to explode remains high, if not only one of the two. Irwin and Jova are also mixed up in numbers sine Irwin formed out of TD 11 and Jova out of 10, so the naming of this year is actually Adrian, Beatriz, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, Hilary, Jova, Irwin, not Irwin, Jova. 'Ryan1000' 22:17, October 6, 2011 (UTC) ::::Yes, I meant EPac. Also; Fujiwara! http://i291.photobucket.com/albums/ll316/un1_2008/Hurricanes/fujiwara01irwinandjova.png NHC says Irwin is dominant so he will strengthen faster, while Jova will remain weaker until they separate. But it seems likely that both will become significant storms. Yqt1001 22:20, October 6, 2011 (UTC) :::::Ryan, you mean 6 for 9? Remember that Beatriz, Calvin, and Greg didn't get past Cat 1 strength... --HurricaneMaker99 22:22, October 6, 2011 (UTC) ::::::I know, I was just saying 6 major hurricanes, not exactly 6 out of 9, and if both Irwin and Jova take advantage of the low shear and high SST's they're in right now, they could easily explode to C4's which, if they do, will make this year second(third if you include ties) to 1992/1993 for the most C4's in a season, with 6. I knew Irwin would be dominant, but by the time Jova heads eastward towards Mexico, she will be out of Irwin's path and could explode before landfall, which would spell bad news for them. Irwin will sit out to sea for a few days before turning back to hit Mexico just behind Jova. 'Ryan1000' 00:40, October 7, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Jova and Irwin are most likely to become hurricanes. There origins were probably form MJO which is expected to move into the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific will be done with its season. 'HurricaneOwen99 01:30, October 7, 2011 (UTC)' :::::: :::::Irwin is a cat 1 now, Owen. '' Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:28, October 7, 2011 (UTC) I see an eye...http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/vis-l.jpg Hurricane Kiewii 14:24, October 7, 2011 (UTC) The NHC predicts that it will be a Category 3 (or 4) at landfall! But someone told me that NHC's intensity forecasts are off by 30 mph.. Hurricane Kiewii 15:17, October 7, 2011 (UTC) :So far out, the intensity could be anywhere from dissipated to category 5. NHC's intensity forecasts are usually very wrong, and can often be wrong by up to 70mph. Yqt1001 19:09, October 7, 2011 (UTC) :At 65 mph. NOAA has REALLY messed up this year's predictions in terms of hurricanes and major hurricanes. They predicted 5-8 hurricanes, but Jova looks like our ninth. Furthermore, they predicted 1-3 majors, but we have four already and Irwin could be our fifth one. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:53, October 7, 2011 (UTC) ::Jova is forecast to become one first, but given the favorable conditions both hurricanes are in, I wouldn't be surprised if we tack two more C4's onto that number, which would be 6 for 6 as I mentioned earlier(6 C4's for 6 majors). Irwin looks like he's getting his act together, and 99E could become future Kenneth. Ryan1000 21:54, October 7, 2011 (UTC) ::At 70 mph. Our ninth hurricane is in the making. Hurricane Andrew (444) 16:13, October 8, 2011 (UTC) Hurricane Jova ::As Irwin is downgrade to a tropical storm Jova is upgrade to the ninth hurricane of the seasonAllanjeffs 20:38, October 8, 2011 (UTC) :::Here we go.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 21:00, October 8, 2011 (UTC) 85mph. They are flying a plane into Jova later today, so we'll find out it's true intensity soon. Yqt1001 14:01, October 9, 2011 (UTC) :90mph Jova found by recon. Hurricane and TS watches are in place. Yqt1001 20:55, October 9, 2011 (UTC) ::Jova's a pretty small and tightly wound hurricane, so MH strength definitely isn't out of the question before landfall. Mexico needs to keep their eyes on this one. 'Ryan1000' 01:44, October 10, 2011 (UTC) 99E.INVEST 99E.INVEST Here we go again. This one is a few hundred miles southwest of San Slavador. 20% right now. With the intensity/locations of Irwin, Jova and 99E right now I could see Central America looking like the coast of Africa in the Atlantic. (strong TS far off the coast, weak TS closer and invest just off of the coast) Yqt1001 23:49, October 6, 2011 (UTC) What, is the rate of activity actually accelerating at this time of year? We have 2(possibly major) hurricanes in the making and now future Kenneth? EPac's really going donkers. And Darren thought I didn't make good ACE/storm predictions in my last blog post >:). Just one storm after another. NOAA really screwed up the predictions for activity this year in EPac, mostly in intensity. I can still see Philippe out there, but other than him, ATL's not producing anything useful for the next 48 hours. 'Ryan1000' 00:46, October 7, 2011 (UTC) :::I think it's because of the MJO. Right now it is in the EPac and Irwin, Jova and 99E seem to be of MJO origin. Once the MJO gets fully over to the Atlantic I'm sure we will see something like this, just in the Caribbean.... Yqt1001 00:52, October 7, 2011 (UTC) :::Agree with you Yqt1001 :::::once the MJO moove to the caribean the eastern pacific will shut down Allanjeffs 01:20, October 7, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Could this thing pull a Hermine? -- 16:39, October 7, 2011 (UTC) :::::::Now at medium chance...30%. 'Hurricane Kiewii' 18:22, October 7, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Conditions won't really be favourable for GoM development in the BoC area for the next week. So it seems like the only way it could redevelop in the Atlantic would be if it went east into the Caribbean. Yqt1001 19:13, October 7, 2011 (UTC) :::::::This wave is only forecast to become a Tropical storm, but when it Develops, Irwin and Jova will be moving out, so it could still have a chance at becoming a brief hurricane as MJO still holds on here. I expect it to make it's last stand in the Atlantic in the last week or two of October. Even so, the ACE won't get over 130 there as far as i'm concerned, but here it could easily pass 110 with these three. 'Ryan1000' 23:23, October 7, 2011 (UTC) :::::::now 50% and here comes KenethAllanjeffs 23:37, October 7, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::Lost a lot of storm activity in the LLCC.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 04:55, October 8, 2011 (UTC) :70% chance.. this looks like it could become Kenneth. 'Hurricane Kiewii' 11:57, October 8, 2011 (UTC) ::The models are very unenthusiastic with this one in terms of intensity. SHIPS only forecasts a minor TS out of this, if not only a depresion, and the models are also clueless as to where it will go. The're all over the place. This one might not be very signifigant, but it stil follows behind the train with Irwin and Jova. 'Ryan1000' 13:09, October 8, 2011 (UTC) :::I think this could become a depression tomorrow. [[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 16:47, October 8, 2011 (UTC) ::80%. Yqt1001 17:55, October 8, 2011 (UTC) :::The models are not much impressed by maybe-Kenneth, perhaps because of the system being fastly closer to the coast. However we might see three named active storms on Monday and Tuesday. Though I would like to see triplet of hurricanes the proximity to the Mexican coast is of concern, and since all of these three systems are hitting the coast probably within two or three days this could emerge into a major disaster. -- ::::But this storm will still take 3-4 days to make landfall, unless it heads eastward into Central America. It has a chance to become Hurricane Kenneth, and I won't rule anything out from it. Jova is about to take off though, and as she pulls away, this storm will have even more time to strengthen. We already have 9 hurricanes and possibly a 10th hurricane, and 6th major hurricane, in the making. This goes to show you should never bustcast, or overcast, neutral seasons, because they are highly unpredictable(1990 is another). 'Ryan1000' 22:09, October 8, 2011 (UTC) 90% now. TD12 is coming. Yqt1001 23:49, October 8, 2011 (UTC) and it could be very well have it tonight I like to see hurricanes in the eastern pacific but i really want to see a major like Katia in the Atlantic or Ophelia but i know that now all the tropical activity will be near countries so is gonna be bad and for information Philippe is the only male storm of the Atlantic to be at hurricane strengthAllanjeffs 23:59, October 8, 2011 (UTC) Ryan most of the models bring it to central America but it still could be a hurricane when it make landfallAllanjeffs 04:56, October 9, 2011 (UTC) Down to 70% central america should be aware of this systemAllanjeffs 05:50, October 9, 2011 (UTC) : Guess we have to wait.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 17:22, October 9, 2011 (UTC) Still at 70%.[[User: Cyclone10|''10]][[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] 18:02, October 9, 2011 (UTC) Less chance of formation.. down to 60%. 'Hurricane Kiewii' 23:49, October 9, 2011 (UTC) Jova's outflow is starting to get the better of this thing, but when she moves away, this thing has it's chance, if it ever will, of becoming a named storm. 'Ryan1000' 01:44, October 10, 2011 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Started this section early. With three hurricanes at hand, I just felt like starting this section. Anywho, what are your predictions? '''Mine:' *'Adrian - 1%' No effects on land, intensity doesn't earn retirements. *'Beatriz - 10%' Impact not significant, while there are 4 deaths, I don't think it's going to be retired. *'Calvin - 1%' Was indeed an interesting storm. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 21:07, July 8, 2011 (UTC) :Well, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement, but if I had to put a number on it? I would put 5% to Beatriz and keep everyone else, since they did nothing. However, the season is far from over, and there is always a possibility of a destructive late-season storm like Kenna or Pauline. As of now, i'd wait on this section. I also made this in the WPac forum just now, but it should wait there too. Ryan1000 22:47, July 8, 2011 (UTC) : : :Here are mine: : :Adrian - 2% 'I don't think so, intensities don't determine retirements. And Adrian's staying, unless he pulls a Knut out of the hat. :'Beatriz '- 7%' Unless we get an Alma- like situation, no. 4 deaths are not enough, and Mexico has gone through worse than her. :Calvin - 0% 'He's gonna stay, no matter what. The end. :'Dora - 3% 'See Adrian's section. :'Eugene - 1% 'See Dora's, Calvin's, and Adrian's sections. :'Fernanda - 0% - 'History doesn't earn retirement. :'Greg - 0% - 'No. :'Hilary - 1% - 'See Adrian's, Dora's, and Eugene's section. :'Irwin - TBA - 'Still active :'Jova - TBA - 'Still active :And I wouldn't be surprised if Beatriz is retired, you know of the EPac's storm history (for example, they let Alma, a storm that did next to nothing (but Alma does means "soul" in Spanish) get sacrificed, while they set a monster, Agatha, free. That's pathetic). Andrew444 02:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC) Here are mine (Until Calvin) *Adrian – 0%:Unless it's some dictator's name, hell no. *Beatriz – 2%:Why the heck would this one be retired? *Calvin – 0%:I love fish :P 'Darren23 | 02:38, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :A bit early but here are mine: ::Adrian; 0%: ^ what Darren said ::Beatriz; 4%: Arlene hurt Mexico more, but Mexico seems resilient to retire names anymore ::Calvin; 0%: Became a hurricane, but that's it. ::Dora; 0%: Didn't do much other than RI. ::Eugene; 0%: ^ same as Dora. ::Fernanda; 0%: Got into the CPac, but that isn't a retirement worthy feat. ::Greg; 0%: ^ same as Calvin. ::Hilary; : Yqt1001 20:42, September 22, 2011 (UTC) Here are mine: * Adrian: 1% Not enough impact * Beatriz: 5% Did not devastate the economy * Calvin 0% YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] Adrian-0%, Beatriz-10%, Calvin-0%, Dora-5%. OWEN2011 16:11, July 22, 2011 (UTC) *Adrian: 1% - Unless he pulls an Adolph, no. *Beatriz: 10% - Some impact in Mexico, but not terribly significant. That said, there is the possibility that she could pull an Alma. *Calvin: 0% - Became a hurricane... and did absolutely nothing else. *Dora: 1% - Was fun as hell to track, but as Jake said about Danielle last year, beauty doesn't earn retirement. *Eugene: 1% - See Adrian and Dora's sections. *Fernanda: 0% - And so passes the first epic fail of the year (well, for the EPAC anyway). *Greg: 0% - See Calvin's section. --HurricaneMaker99 17:24, August 20, 2011 (UTC) Here are my(official)EPac percentages as of now. *Adrian - 1% - Just because he was so freakin' awesome. *Beatriz - 10% - Some deaths, some damage, but enough for retirement? Probrably not. *Calvin - 0% - There are two reasons why this thing shouldn't be retired:Number 1, and of course number 2!(end sarcasm) *Dora - 0% - Didn't pull off what Adrian did, so no credit for her. *Eugene - 1% - See Adrian. *Fernanda - 0% - Finally the hurricane streak ends, and it didn't do anything but spin fish. *Greg - 0% - See Calvin. *Hilary - 0% - It was strong and long-lasting, but that doesn't earn retirement. *Irwin - ?? - TBA. *Jova - ?? - TBA. 'Ryan1000' 22:30, August 24, 2011 (UTC) Here's mine: Adrian, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, and Hilary - 0% - they're all fishspinners. Beatriz - 5% - At least it had fatalities and affected land. 10Q. 20:36, September 22, 2011 (UTC) Adrian,Calvin,Dora,Eugene,Fernanda,Greg all 0% because they didn´t do anything Beatriz 5% Arlene hurt more than this and she ws even helpful to a drought that was in that part of Mexico Hillary 5% some flood but that part have seen a lot worse Irwin ? Jova? Allanjeffs 15:14, October 8, 2011 (UTC) Mid-season forecasts What are you guy mid-season forecasts. Mines is 14-9-4. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] :I am expecting a near-normal season here, if not slightly below normal, and I am calling for, say 14-16 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors, but no category 5's. Until Calvin dissipates, I guess the next thing to watch is 08W in the WPac, which is currently Goring by PAGASA and could become future Ma-on. Ryan1000 19:24, July 9, 2011 (UTC) ::I'm gonna go to the lower end of all y'all's forecasts and go for 12 NS, 7 H, 3 MH and also no C5's (EPAC only, I hate forecasting CPAC). Apparently, this is close to the CPC forecast of a median of 12 NS, 6.5 H and 2 MH. Here's my monthly forecast: *Jun: 2TS, 2H, 1MH *Jul: 3TS, 1H, 0MH *Aug: 3TS, 2H, 1MH *Sep: 3TS, 2H, 1MH *Oct: 1TS, 0H, 0MH *Nov: 0TS, 0H, 0MH *Dec: Heck no 'Darren23' | 20:18, July 9, 2011 (UTC) '''HurricaneSpin's' Atlantic: 16-13-8-5-1 (Maria) ACE=108 Pacific: 18-14-7-3-0 (Norma) ACE=101 - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 20:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC) Oh yeah, ATL. I'm going with 16 (±3) NS, 8(±2) H, 5(±1) MH, ≥0 C5, or above normal with an ACE of 110-195, or (assuming median ACE is 87.5) 125-222% above normal mean because conditions are still very favorable for significant development in the season. Darren23 | 20:57, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :My predictions: ::Atlantic: 16-8-4-2 ::Pacific: 14-7-3-0 :Yqt1001 21:49, July 9, 2011 (UTC) : :I think the Atlantic will have 14-9-5. IMO, the pacific is more tricky since we already have had the first three storms become hurricanes and 1 major. I would go with 11-12 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 1-5 majors (I wouldn't be suprised if the season ends up like 2010 and has no majors through peak of season.) :ACE for the Atlantic should be around 150. The Pacific ACE should be between 50-80. Suprise11 22:53, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :2010? Why is 2010 being discussed? Do you realize that the 2010 PHS an anomaly? The environment is much more favorable than 2010. In fact, if this seaosn shuts down later this month, and pulls a 2010/1977, I will be shocked. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'''ropical]] 22:57, July 9, 2011 (UTC) ::While 2010 was anomaly (Number of June storms, June C5, lack of activity afterward), because we are in the inactive Pacific era, a repeat will not be surprising, but it is not really expected. And YE, an interment is a burial :P 'Darren23' | 23:11, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :::It will be surprising, because a 2010 type season has occurred only twice in the past 44 years. So the odds of an 2010 type season is 1/22.YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 23:29, July 9, 2011 (UTC) ::: :::I meant 2010 in terms of the possibility of no majors through peak of season. For example, despite 2003's high number of named storms, there were no majors. Suprise11 23:36, July 9, 2011 (UTC) ::::Given the fact that we already have three major and one cane, it is unlikely that we will have no majors in the season. Most years have a Baja storm that becomes an MH if not an MH fish storm. In fact, I could only find two seasons since 1977 with no MH's during the peak (2003 and 2010). Odds=1/12. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 23:43, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :::: ::::True. I gave a big range since because of the difficulty for me to predict majors for this season. I honestly think we will get 2 more majors for a total of 3 majors. This is inside my range. Suprise11 23:50, July 9, 2011 (UTC) :::I'm not entirely sure, but I do believe that a 2010 repeat is next to impossible here. Not to say a 2010 repeat won't happen, but the chances are not good. I changed the tables below the forumheader and the WAD(Worldwide activity discussion) now has it's own forum. I expect a major or two to come in the season's peak, but per 2003 and last year, that's not a gurantee, but again, it's not likely we won't have a peak-season major hurricane this year. The only thing out there as of now is the new TD in the WPac(excluding Calvin, he's pretty much gone). 'Ryan1000 '01:33, July 10, 2011 (UTC) ::: :::Well... my predictions are on the worldwide discusssion page, but here are my E. Pac and C.Pac mid- season forecasts. And for the E.Pac, we've seen 3-3-1 already, but anywho: :::E.Pac: :::14-7-2-0 (get down to Max + one Atlantic crossover) ACE= ~105 Net TC activity: 101% :::C.Pac (note: crossover(s) from the EPac are excluded): :::(2-4)-(1-3)-(0-2)-(0-1) ACE = ~20 :::I believe in the CPac, we'll get down to Unala, possibly Wali, or if the CPac wants to be like 1982, Ana. :::For my other forecasts, go to the WAD and 2011-12 S. Hem pages. Andrew444 13:32, July 10, 2011 (UTC) ::: ::: Very mid season predictions Mines are 14-10-6. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 17:06, August 16, 2011 (UTC) Mine is also 14-10-6 (please see my blog http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_blog:Andrew444/Remainder_of_2011_and_2012_forecast_calls). Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:32, August 16, 2011 (UTC) EPAC hurricane drought Any overdue areas in the EPAC? YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 17:06, August 16, 2011 (UTC) : YE, Southern California is overdue. Last hurricane to make landfall was in 1858, and the last tropical storm was in 1939. However, numerous depressions have made landfall since then. Suprise11 17:24, August 16, 2011 (UTC) : : Suprise11, the 1858 hurricane did bring hurricane force winds ashore, but it actually just barely missed landfall. Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:39, August 16, 2011 (UTC) : Don't forget western Central America.Cyclone10 21:35, August 27, 2011 (UTC) : Well, Agatha last year made landfall in Guatemala, unless you mean ''hurricane ''landfall. Then, I don't know when the last time that happened. Hurricane Andrew (444) 23:17, August 27, 2011 (UTC) :If you use SNM data, Adrian 05 made landfall in Central America. If you use NHC data, never :P. YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 00:15, August 28, 2011 (UTC) :I meant hurricane strength at landfall.10L.NONAME 21:47, August 28, 2011 (UTC)(Cyclone10) : Late season forecasts The peak of the EPAC season is gone, so what are your late season predictions? Mine is 12-9-4. [[User: Andrew444|'Hurricane']] [[User talk: Andrew444|'Andrew']] ([[User blog:Andrew444|'444']]) 00:31, September 10, 2011 (UTC) :Because I believe we're heading for an EPAC shutdown due to the waters getting colder in EPAC, mine is 9-7-3 'Darren23' | 12:54, September 10, 2011 (UTC) :I think two to three storms mine is 10-7-3Allanjeffs 19:17, September 10, 2011 (UTC) ::I think we will have an October major hurricane coming our way, and another hurricane also in October or late September. So my call is 9-7-3 as well, with an ACE/storm near-normal or slightly above average. The ACE/storm in ATL will suck this year because we've only had one hurricane for every 7 storms. 2007 had 2 for every 5, with an ACE/storm of 4.6. Even if we do get a lot of strong storms after this date, I still expect the ACE/storm to be below average. I expect the maximum possibility to be 6, and that might be a little generous even so. 'Ryan1000' 14:06, September 11, 2011 (UTC) :::Over in the ATL forum I said 9-12 depressions, 9-11 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 0-1 category 5 hurricanes (I don't know why I never included majors, but for majors I'm going with 3-4) Yqt1001 19:40, September 11, 2011 (UTC) ::::Yeah, EPAC's dead. While sort-of improbable (I give it a 40% chance of happening), we could beat/tie the record low for the # of storms. And EPAC is like... 54% below average in terms of ACE, which is pretty much like the NHEM totals. (ACE/Storm, depending on storm numbers, is sometimes a terrible indicator of the activity). While I didn't think it could happen, it looks like we have a slightly more active version of 2010. 'Darren23' | 15:37, September 18, 2011 (UTC) :::::We may have Hilary of the new AOI and maybe Irwin in october the most to me will be Keneth and that it is for me Allanjeffs 23:56, September 18, 2011 (UTC) ::::::I personally prefer to use ACE/storm because a season could only have a few storms but incredible ACE, or a ton of storms and a horrible ACE, so if you take the number of storms it had in proportion to the number of storms of another season, the ACE skyrockets or plummets. And this year's EPac season could be on the road to having the highest ACE/storm since at least 1995, if not higher. 'Ryan1000''' 20:19, September 21, 2011 (UTC)